July 26, 2012: SHADAC Deputy Director Julie Sonier has authored a new brief, “Predicting the Health Insurance Impacts of Complex Policy Changes:  A New Tool for States,” in which she provides an overview of the new SHADAC Projection Model.

The SHADAC Projection Model is a complex spreadsheet model that states can use to project the impacts of complex policy changes on health insurance coverage.  The model provides state officials with the flexibility to update baseline data or test different assumptions, and is based primarily on state-specific data.  SHADAC developed this model to address the need among states for analysis that is timely, state-specific, relatively inexpensive, and flexible for testing alternative assumptions to predict the coverage impacts of policy changes at the state level.  While the model itself is quite complex, it is designed to be transparent and easy for state officials to understand and use.  Additionally, although the model was constructed specifically to help states project the coverage impacts of the ACA, the approach can be adapted to model the coverage impacts of other reform approaches as well. 

The new brief highlights to model’s approach, data sources, assumptions, and model output.

Both the SHADAC Projection Model and the brief, “Predicting the Health Insurance Impacts of Complex Policy Changes: A New Tool for States,” were created as part of SHADAC’s role as a technical assistance provider to states participating in the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s State Health Reform Assistance Network (“State Network”).  The State Network initiative provides in-depth technical support to states to maximize coverage gains as they implement key provisions of the Affordable Care Act.  For more information about State Network, visit www.statenetwork.org.